Hotsheet

One of the great features available to Realtors through the San Francisco Multiple Listing Service is the 24 Hour Market Watch. This gives us a quick overview of what has happened in the last twenty four hours; it is a glimpse into current trends. We will share this with you from time to time as once you have seen a number of them you can start to draw your own conclusions. The categories we will report on today are:

New Listings

9 Single Family Homes. The neighborhoods represented in this group are Outer Richmond, Lone Mountain, Outer Parkside (spelled "Outer barkside" in the listing; choose your agent carefully!) , Oceanview, Westwood Park, Bernal Heights, and Visitacion Valley.

13 Condo/Coop/TIC/Lofts. One of these just came out as I am writing. It is a two bedroom, two bath condominium on Castro at 20th Street listed at $965,000.

1 Two Unit Building. This building was on the market previously but withdrawn and relisted with a different agent as a new listing this year.

Back on Market

1 Single Family Home. This category represents homes that were in escrow but have fallen out and were re released for sale. They can fall out of escrow for any number of reasons ranging from problems with the buyer's financing to something uncovered during the buyer's inspection period. This particular home is a four bedroom, two bath, tenant occupied home in Visitacion Valley listed for $598,000.

4 Tenancy in Commons. Three of the four are in one three unit building; two have been remodelled and the cottage in the back needs some work. TICs have an additional set of hurdles to get over during escrow. If it is a group loan, the partners need to approve of each other and each other's finances before proceeding. This particular three unit building that has come back on the market is on 29th Street in Noe Valley. The individual units are listed for $849,000, $799,000, and $399,000 for the cottage.

Price Increase

1 Condo. This shows as a price increase but was actually only a typo. Technically there were no price increases. Generally, the reason somebody increases the price on a property is because they began with a low asking price hoping to create a frenzy. For whatever reason a frenzy was not created. The likelihood of the seller receiving more than their asking price decreases as time goes on. They may, at some point, decide to raise their asking price to a number they are willing to accept.

Price Reductions

2 Single Family Homes. One is a short sale in the Outer Sunset; the other is a bank owned property in the Bayview.

2 Condos. One of these is a loft that is being reduced in price for the second time.

1 Two Unit Building. This is a fixer probate sale in Visitacion Valley listed at $695,000.

Glen Park

It is time to dive back into our neighborhood series. Glen Park, otherwise known in the real estate world as District 5A, is a small community just south of Noe Valley. It is a very family oriented neighborhood with a village feel. It is possibly best known for the BART station, a huge draw for home buyers with a downtown or east bay commute. The station is located right in neighborhood's center, at Bosworth and Diamond. Glen Park is also served by the Muni bus lines 23, 26, 35, 44 and 52 plus the J Church Muni Metro line.

Just across the way from the BART station, there is a newer mixed use development consisting of the Glen Park Market Place, a branch of the San Francisco Public Library, and condominiums. The residents of the community take their "village" seriously as they had to fight to keep big chain businesses out of their center. Close by you will also find a very popular taqueria, a pizza parlor, a wonderful breakfast spot, a cheese shop, and many other small businesses. There are also two public elementary schools in Glen Park, one of which has an English-Spanish immersion program.

So what does it cost to live here? As mentioned earlier, Glen Park lies just south of Noe Valley. It is also just west of Bernal Heights. It just so happens that it is between those two neighborhoods in price as well. It is generally thought of as being a step up in price from Bernal Heights, and a step down in price from Noe Valley.

One problem about Glen Park for those of you who are interested in living there is that there usually is very little available. Again, that speaks to how dedicated the residents are. It is mainly a single family home neighborhood with the mixed use development and a few other small condo developments sprinkled throughout.

In the past six months, thirty two single family homes were sold in Glen Park. At the lower end, there were a couple of "contractor's specials" in the $600,000 range. The highest sale in the past six months was a "beautifully refurbished" three bedroom home with panoramic views of the city which sold for $1,650,000.The average price is just under $1,025,000. There are currently only five homes available in the Glen Park neighborhood, and all of them have been on the market for a minimum of 50 days. This is not to say that homes aren't selling. In Glen Park they actually sell quite well. These five homes are what is left after the plate has been picked through. One is on a busy street, another is a tiny cottage, another is overpriced...you get the idea. We are waiting; our clients are waiting, for new inventory.

Anyway, the closest example to a home that is currently available in Glen Park close to the average price would be 62 Lippard Ave listed at $1,295,000.We know, that is well above the average, but it is also way overpriced. It is a nice house in a great location and they have done some extensive remodelling, but it is small with a tiny garden.

A great example of a home that just recently sold at almost exactly the average price is 326 Surrey Street. This is a two bedroom, two bath, 1100 square foot remodelled Victorian farmhouse. It was listed at $949,000 and sold for $1,025,000 on December 14, 2007. They accepted an offer after being on the market for only one week.

Those of you hoping to become part of this village just need to be patient. There will be more available in the coming months.

The Year of the Serious Homebuyer

2008 has arrived and it is time to hit the ground running. All signs are pointing towards a recovering market as even the hardest hit sections of the country have shown signs of improvement. We should, however, pay much closer attention to the San Francisco market. Laurence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors, likens national real estate reports to a national weather report. What an excellent visual.

How many times have you seen that map of the United States with thunder showers over the northeast and sunshine over good old California. What is happening across the country will not help you decide if you should wear an extra sweater or throw on a scarf. You need the local report for that. The weather even varies in the Bay Area; San Francisco may be foggy while the South Bay is sunny and warm. Even in San Francisco we have micro climates. You can sit outside a cafe in sunny Potrero Hill and watch the fog roll in over Twin Peaks. Real estate is no different. If you want to know what is happening in the area you wish to buy, look at the data from that area.

Along with his brilliant analogy, Yun also made some predictions. He sees appreciation getting back to a normal pattern in 2009. This gives serious homeowners a window; an opportunity to get in while prices stay level and interest rates stay low. He attributes much of the problem with the sub prime market to greed. Greed on the part of the lenders to make the deal and get a higher return. Greed on the part of homeowners to buy more than they could afford, and greed of real estate professionals who let it happen in the interest of making a deal. This year, greed will pass and the serious home buyers will step in taking full advantage of the situation.

If all of the San Francisco real estate agents are like us, they have a long list of clients who were waiting for the new year to kick their search into high gear. The new year has arrived. Our schedule is already filling up with property tours; now we are just waiting for the properties to hit the market.

We are excited to see what the year brings. In the meantime, we promise to continue our reports and keep you informed on our local climate.

Look Back; Look Ahead

As the curtain gets ready to close on 2007, it is a good time to take one last look at what we have seen throughout the year. The year started out like any other, slow but steady. Only the naysayers were talking about the bubble bursting, but then again they had been predicting that for years. The typical housing market cycle was present as things picked up in the spring and summer. The end of the summer marks the most dramatic event; the fall of the sub prime market. We will continue to see these effects well into 2008, but in San Francisco the effects are much harder to see than in much of the rest of the country. Our number of sales is down, but in most neighborhoods prices are holding steady. Interest rates for a thirty year fixed jumbo mortgage have managed to stay under seven percent.

Over the course of the year many homes were bought and sold, and with each transaction comes a lesson learned. Buyers and sellers learn the ropes, and the agents come away with a new pearl of wisdom each time.

Right now the majority of the people we meet are waiting. Many of them have been waiting for some time now. What are they waiting for? They say they are "waiting to see what the market is doing". As you saw in the District Study, in San Francisco the market is simply plugging along. The wait will continue into January, and once people see that the bottom has not dropped out from under them, the wait will end.

Activity will start to pick up again mid January, and as people's confidence in the market is restored, that activity will continue to grow into the spring and summer. The moral of the story is, the sky is not falling. As San Francisco is a strong market, it will be the last to be affected by the national woes and the first to recover.

It has been a great year for us. The VanFenton team was born and is thriving. Our families are healthy, happy, and growing! Anja was fortunate enough to visit all of her sons and most of her grandchildren this year, and my family was blessed with a new addition.

Have a safe and happy new year. We are looking forward to working with all of you in 2008.

San Francisco District Study

As mentioned in the yesterday's post, we will be getting back to our district series. Before we dive in neighborhood by neighborhood, we thought we would give you an overview. With all of the news stories lately regarding the plunging home sale prices, we thought we would pass along these statistics specific to each San Francisco District. This is a year over year study comparing the sales for single family homes from November 2006 to November 2007.

District 1 November 2006/ November 2007
Number of Sales 13/ 22
Median Selling Price 899,000/ 1,260,000
Days on Market 30/ 35

District 2 November 2006/ November 2007
Number of Sales 39/ 23
Median Selling Price 775,000/ 839,300
Days on Market 33/ 28

District 3 November 2006/ November 2007
Number of Sales 23/ 15
Median Selling Price 690,000/ 680,000
Days on Market 51/ 43

District 4 November 2006/ November 2007
Number of Sales 38/ 18
Median Selling Price 1,002,500/ 858,000
Days on Market 36/ 41

District 5 November 2006/ November 2007
Number of Sales 31/ 33
Median Selling Price 1,335,000/ 1,390,000
Days on Market 37/ 30

District 6 November 2006/ November 2007
Number of Sales 2/ 7
Median Selling Price 1,113,750/ 1,825,000
Days on Market 43/ 32

District 7 November 2006/ November 2007
Number of Sales 9/ 10
Median Selling Price 2,100,000/ 2,762,500
Days on Market 48/ 33

District 8 November 2006/ November 2007
Number of Sales 1/ 0
Median Selling Price 12,000,000/
Days on Market 178/

District 9 November 2006/ November 2007
Number of Sales 20/ 23
Median Selling Price 845,000/ 850,000
Days on Market 36/ 35

District 10 November 2006/ November 2007
Number of Sales 57/ 24
Median Selling Price 690,000/ 608,600
Days on Market 47/ 63

In some cases, the number of sales is too small to come to any conclusions, but overall you can see that San Francisco is holding steady. Feel free to contact us if you have more specific questions about any one of the districts or neighborhoods. Also, let us know if you are interested in taking a Grand Tour of the city and getting to know more neighborhoods before you choose where you want to live.

Weekly Sales Report

Welcome to the final sales report of the year. As expected, activity this week was quite low. Not many escrows were opened, and those that were for the most part were single offer situations. Many buyers are hanging up their hunting caps for the remainder of the year and hoping that 2008 will bring more options. There have been almost no new listings for the past few weeks. There are buyers out there; many are casually looking and gearing up to get serious in the new year. I feel as if the engines are revving up and the crowds are just waiting for the flag to drop.

Even this past weekend open houses were well attended for mid December. We had fifteen to twenty parties come through both Saturday and Sunday, and this on a property that has been on the market for over a month. Normally many people wait until Spring to bring their house onto the market. We may see the buying season start early this year if sellers start taking advantage of the lack of inventory.

Of the properties that sold this past week, 67% sold under the asking price. As Joe Zilioli, one of our preferred housing inspectors, said, "It is the best time to buy in ten years!" The largest underbid went a whopping 28% under the asking price. It is shocking, we know, but much of that difference can be explained by overpricing and unreasonably high expectations. This home, a five bedroom fifty six hundred square foot fully detached corner home on Lake Street was priced at $3,600,000. Interestingly enough, the same home was on the market in 2003 for $4,200,000 with the same agent. They withdrew that listing after one hundred and eleven days with a little note on the listing that said, "withdrawn for now". It seems the agent figured she just needed to withdraw the listing long enough to talk the sellers down to a more reasonable price. It took her three years. The home finally sold at $2,580,000. It was marketed as having been "on the market for the first time in over 35 years" which is a nice way of saying that everything needed to be updated.

The other 33% of the properties that sold this past week did go over the asking price. The largest overbid was 739 12th Avenue in the inner Richmond which sold at $1,160,000, fourteen percent over the asking price.

Interest rates are still holding steady. At the end of 2006 people were predicting that interest rates might hit the eight mark by the end of 2007. A thirty year fixed jumbo loan is still only at 7.000% with no points. Paying three points will bring that down to 6.125%. It is time for buyers to negotiate and have the sellers help buy down their rate, thus lowering their monthly payments.

The next weekly sales report will be on January 9th. Stick with us, though, because in the meantime we will have lots of other things to share with you. We will be starting our neighborhood series back up, and there will be announcements of things to come in 2008 including our first time home buyer workshops. Just passing it along; 2008 is going to be great!

Agency Relationships

Real estate is a service oriented industry. It is also an industry that is based on relationships. The types of relationships are very clearly defined by our contracts, but it is not always clear to the average consumer. Making things clear to everyone is a part of our job that we take very seriously, and one of the reasons we enjoy working with first time home buyers and sellers. Anybody who does something on a daily basis becomes an expert in their field. It becomes so natural that it is easy to forget not everyone shares your expertise. That is something we have to remind ourselves of daily as we work with new clients. What has become obvious and routine to us is not obvious to everyone.

There are, in every real estate transaction, a buyer's agent and a seller's agent. It is also possible to have the same agent represent both the buyer and the seller in the same transaction. We will get back to that later.

As a seller, you will hire an agent and agree on their commission. The listing agent will market your home in hopes of finding a buyer. They will agree to share their commission with the agent who brings the buyer and an acceptable to offer to the property. In short, all commissions are paid by the seller and then split between the buyer's and seller's agents and their respective companies.

This means that if you are a buyer, you receive all of the services provided by your agent at no cost. You will pay escrow fees and lender fees at the close of escrow, but no agent commissions. Remember that when you are trying to decide if you want the help of an agent as you search for property.

Earlier it was mentioned that the same agent can represent both parties in one transaction. This can mean two things. The first is that an "Agency" can represent both sides. For example, Coldwell Banker is a huge company and has many agents. Chances are very high that they end up on both sides of a transaction. It is also possible for one agent, or salesperson, to "double end" a deal which means that they represent both the buyer and the seller of a transaction.

There are times representing both parties makes sense, but for the most part it is something that we prefer not to do. Our goal as a listing agent is to get the highest possible price for our seller. Our goal as a buyer's agent is to get the best deal possible for our clients. Is there a conflict here? We find it hard to do both simultaneously. Therefore if we meet an eligible and interested buyer for a property we are listing, we would refer them to a trusted colleague and hope for the best!

Other than walking into a real estate office, the place you are mostly likely to run into a Realtor is an open house. The host of that open house may or may not be the listing agent. If they are not the listing agent, don't assume they are "just babysitting" the house. They are there to represent buyers, possibly you, on the sale of that or any other house.