Surprising Statistics

Last night Anja and I had a meeting with a new buyer client. We like to sit down with our buyers before we start taking them on tour. This way we can get to know each other and get a clear understanding for what they are looking for. Also, we get a chance to walk them through the buying process. There is a lot of information to cover, especially for a first time buyer.

This family in particular will be searching primarily in Bernal Heights, Glen Park, and Potrero Hill. They have been out and about on their own quite a bit, so they have seen most of what is currently on the market.

When you are thinking of buying and have narrowed it down to a specific type of property in a few neighborhoods, it is a good idea to look at the sold properties in those areas. You can get a feel for what the trend is in that neighborhood. Many people these days are assuming that prices are dropping, or that properties are selling for under the asking price.

We prepared a comparative property analysis for each of the three neighborhoods, and used three bedroom two bathroom homes as the subject of the study. I have to say that we were all quite surprised by the result.

Glen Park: 39 single family homes sold in the past six months
10 of those were 3 bed/2 bath homes
Average list price = $950,090
Average sold price = $1,004,600.
On average, these properties sold 5% over the asking price

Bernal Heights: 84 single family homes sold in the past six months
26 of those were 3 bed/2 bath homes
Average list price = $938,615
Average sold price = $1,039,462
The average overbid for these properties is 10%

Potrero Hill: 27 single family homes sold in the past six months
3 of those were 3 bed/2 bath
Average list price = $1,004,333
Average sale price = $1,163,000
The average overbid for these properties was 14%

There are a few things to point out about these statistics. The first is obvious. In certain centrally located and desirable neighborhoods, properties are still selling above asking price, especially in those neighborhoods that have a very limited supply such as Potrero Hill.

Another thing is that the average value in Bernal Heights is higher than that in Glen Park. Glen Park has always been a step above Bernal Heights in price, but as far as this study is concerned, the opposite proved to be true.

The last detail that really stands out is the difference in number of houses sold. There is much more available at any given time in Bernal Heights. You would think that the average overbid would be lower in the neighborhood with the most options. This shows that the larger home, the 3 bed/2 bath, is a very popular item and people are willing to pay top dollar.